Turim’s Insights

Despite the proximity, the Brazilian elections are still not the main factor impacting the markets in the country. This is what our co-CEO Leonardo Martins Moraes explains in our monthly webinar.

According to Leonardo, the main market drivers continue to be global factors, related to uncertainty about the direction of world inflation, which continue to rise.

“In addition, we have dealt with a number of concerns regarding the Chinese real estate market and the war in Europe, especially with the Russian government using the gas supply as a way to pressure countries to ease sanctions. It is this very challenging scenario that continues to dictate market volatility”, says Martins.

During the conversation, economist Thiago Campos drew attention to the global movement of economic slowdown, but highlighted that there was a relief of pressures on international production chains. He also highlighted the role of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, which continues with the challenge of deflating the economy, in the face of a growing risk of generating a recession.

In Brazil, GDP in the second half of the year was a positive surprise, but according to our expert’s analysis, the expectations of the Focus Report vis-à-vis the statistical load indicate some deceleration in the second half of the year.

“The market believes that, in the second half of the year, there may be a decline in activity, mainly as a consequence of the delayed effects of monetary policy”, explained Campos.

The webinar also featured the participation of our CIO, Fernando Verboonen, and Rodrigo Louro, CEO of Turim UK.