Turim Insights

Visão Turim, our exclusive monthly webinar for clients, brought together in January Fernando Verboonen (Partner and CIO), Pedro Hokama (Partner and Head of Liquid Assets), and Thiago Campos (Economist) for a review of the key events of 2025 and the main drivers for portfolios in 2026, with a focus on the U.S. and Brazil.

Highlights:

• Rates: despite the magnitude of the measures announced in 2025, the estimated inflationary impact was moderate. In addition, the market expects the Supreme Court’s decision to have a limited effect on the effective tariff rate, with asymmetric risks skewed toward a lower rate.

• Activity: the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, with some acceleration in household consumption in the third quarter. The shutdown is expected to have a temporary negative impact in 4Q25, followed by a rebound in early 2026.

• Federal Reserve: after the split decision in December, the market anticipates a pause in the rate-cutting cycle in January. The consensus is that cuts will resume only around mid-year, following the end of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair. Trump’s choice for his successor may have meaningful implications for markets—particularly for the slope of the yield curve.

• Brazil: inflation ended 2025 at 4.26%, within the target range and well below expectations at the start of the year, supported by exchange-rate appreciation and declining food prices. Activity is also showing signs of moderation, although the election year may increase uncertainty.

In 2025, both onshore and offshore markets delivered strong performance, though not without volatility. Major shocks—such as the announcement of reciprocal tariffs and the escalation of geopolitical tensions—contributed to a highly volatile year, in which allocation discipline and diversification proved essential to capturing the period’s strong returns.