Turim Insight’s

Our experts discussed in May’s webinar how even with the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, the global economy has held up relatively well.

Our economist Henrique Santos, CFA, highlighted the challenge that the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, faces: to deflate the economy, which is quite heated, without generating an economic recession.

On the domestic front, the federal government’s efforts have focused on reducing electricity and fuel prices, which have put pressure on inflation. However, the costs of such measures are high and part of the expenditure will be made outside the ceiling, which undermines the credibility of the fiscal framework.

“We would have a temporary effect on inflation, with part of the price reduction being reversed in 2023. That said, there is always a relevant risk of temporary subsidy programs becoming permanent, with more lasting fiscal costs”, concludes Henrique.

The webinar was also attended by Gustavo Marini, founder and Co-CEO; Fernando Verboonen, portfolio manager; and Lucas Panaro, Fund Analyst at Turin UK.