Turim Insights

Global disinflation, expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States, and robust GDP growth in Brazil were the main highlights of this month’s Turim Insights webinar.

The global scenario suggests the possibility of rate cuts in the U.S. due to moderating inflation – now at levels compatible with the Federal Reserve’s target – and the risk of a sharp economic slowdown. In the markets, future rates continue to decline, reflecting expectations of further monetary policy easing.

The U.S. election race remains tight. Historical evidence suggests that a Democratic victory may benefit emerging markets like Brazil, while a Republican victory could result in better returns for U.S. stocks, despite potential risks associated with tariff and geopolitical policies.

In Brazil, second-quarter GDP grew by 1.4%, significantly above market consensus, sparking widespread upward revisions in growth forecasts for the year. If the current trend is confirmed, this could mark the third consecutive year of growth around 3%, well above most estimates of the country’s potential output.

In the local market, strong flows directed toward the credit market stand out, leading to a widespread narrowing of spreads (the additional return of private bond rates over the benchmark rate).

The webinar featured Ana Carolina Carvalho, Co-CEO, Henrique Santos, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Lucas Panaro, Head of Liquid Funds, and Thiago Campos, Turim’s economist.