Turim Insights

Global disinflation, interest rate cuts in developed economies, and the growth of the Brazilian GDP were some of the highlights of this month’s hashtag#VisãoTurim webinar.

Since last year, we have observed an intense process of global disinflation, despite the bumps during the first quarter of this year, particularly in the United States. Consequently, we are witnessing a series of monetary authorities beginning their interest rate cut cycles this year, such as Switzerland, Sweden, and Canada. It is also expected that other major developed economies will follow this trend throughout the year, including the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and even the United States.

In the markets, we highlight the strong performance of the American stock market, which continues to deliver results above various other stock indices around the world. We also note that private credit securities in the American market have shown significantly reduced spreads (in this case, spreads represent the difference between the returns of private papers and government bonds of the same duration), which requires greater diligence in selecting investments in this class.

In Brazil, we have observed a deterioration in the recent context, due to a decline in the credibility of fiscal and monetary policies, which helps explain the unanchoring of inflation expectations and the poor performance of local assets. On the other hand, the first quarter GDP once again surprised positively, consolidating robust growth at the beginning of the year. Similarly, the data point to a very heated labor market, which may pose challenges for the disinflation of labor-intensive service segments and, consequently, for the COPOM’s interest rate cut cycle.

The webinar featured Ana Carolina Carvalho, Co-CEO of Turim, Fernando Verboonen, CIO of Turim, Lucas Panaro, Head of Liquid Funds at Turim, and Thiago Campos, economist at Turim.