Turim Insights

The global economic slowdown and the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee were highlighted topics in this month’s Turim Insights. The continuation of the global slowdown, especially in the Eurozone and China, which has been negatively surprising in 2023, has contributed to the ongoing downward trend in commodity prices. However, the risk of crop losses due to El Niño could counterbalance this trend and raise agricultural product prices in the near future.

On the other hand, economic data in the United States has been proving stronger than expected. This led the FOMC to adopt a more hawkish tone in its latest meeting. In practice, the committee chose to keep its rate stable, “skipping a decision,” but signaling two additional hikes by the end of the year. Turim’s CIO, Fernando Verboonen, explains that despite the market expecting greater impacts from the March banking crisis, the data has shown more resilience.

In Brazil, the decision of the National Monetary Council (CMN) to maintain the inflation target at 3% has further contributed to a decline in long-term inflation expectations. It is worth noting that starting in 2025, the calendar-year target regime will be replaced by a continuous target model.

The webinar also featured Eduardo Gomes de Almeida, co-CEO; Thiago Campos, Economist; and Rodrigo Louro, CEO of Turim UK and Head of Research.