Turim Insights

The global monetary policy scenario and expectations regarding interest rate movements were the main highlights of this month’s webinar.

One of the main discussions took place around the timing for the end of the monetary tightening cycle in the main economies. Despite there being some consensus about the proximity of interest peaks, some Central Banks, such as those of Australia and Canada, continue to make residual adjustments that surprise the market.

In this sense, the broad set of economic data released in the United States in recent weeks brought volatility to the shorter vertices of the yield curve, reflecting divergent expectations for the FOMC’s decisions in the next meetings.

“There is a quest to identify whether we have reached the end of the interest cycle, in Brazil as well as in the rest of the world. It is interesting to note that global inflation is already showing the first signs that it may give way”, evaluates Nelson Abrahão, partner and chief strategist at Turim.

In the United States, recalls the specialist, the Federal Reserve has already indicated a possible end of the cycle, adopting a more cautious posture of ‘wait and see’. “In Brazil, inflation is also on the way to converging towards the target”, he concludes.

Leonardo Martins Moraes, co-CEO; Henrique Santos, head portfolio manager; and Carolina Assis, from Turim’s illiquid investment team.