US 2020 Elections

What are the perspectives for the American elections and how will the electoral race affect the markets? With this in mind, Turim MFO promoted a webinar with Daniel Clifton, partner and head of political analysis at Strategas Securities.

In a conversation moderated by our partner and strategist, Nelson Abrahao, Clifton explained that, with over a month before the elections, there are still too many variables to make a bet. But in the current scenario, the most likely result will be a win for the Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden.

“Today, Biden has a 55% chance of winning the election. But don’t count on Trump’s defeat. As the economy  and numbers of Covid-19 cases start to improve, so does support for him,” he says.

According to him, the markets are a good metric for voting intentions: if in the months of August to November they are on the rise, the greater the probability that the current president will remain in power. If they are falling, the opposition has a better chance. “In more than 100 years, this indication has been correct by 87%. And, as we have seen US stocks rising since August, this indication shows that the market still sees a better result for Trump.”